THE DIE IS CAST…
When the die is cast, as the saying goes, no amount of witchery can prevent the crossing of the Rubicon.
Since 2015, when Donald Trump decided to stand for the President of the United States, things have not been the same. Norms have been thrown overboard, political discourse has become less civil and hatred against minorities has become the order of the day. He has become a cult-hero with a white-grievance-filled movement called Make America Great Again (MAGA).
Later today, Americans will decide whether they have had enough of him and elect a new generation of leaders to push the country forward or they want to continue to indulge with him in his hate-filled rhetoric and insults.
Whichever way the election goes, the die is cast and this election has been extraordinary. The Democrats’ flag bearer was chosen without having to go through the primaries. The Republicans flag bearer went through the primaries with a forgone conclusion.
But despite the fact that the US consists of 50 states and territories, only results in seven states will determine who wins the presidency.
This is because territories such as Pueto Rico, Guam and US Virgin Islands do not vote for the president even though they are classified as US citizens. They can only vote for the president when they come to live on the US mainland.
Then the states are divided into blue states for Democrats, red states for Republicans and purple (violet) for states which can go either way.
This means that in the blue states such as California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey etc, the majority of the people living there are Democrats, so it’s a forgone conclusion that a Democrat will win any election there so there’s no need for the candidates to spend time to campaign there. The same goes for the Republicans in states like Texas, Florida, Oklahoma etc. Therefore, all attention is given to the seven purple states. This further means that even before the elections, the Republicans are guaranteed 179 electoral votes while the Democrats are guaranteed 242 electoral votes, but the winner needs 270 electoral votes. This is where the purple states are crucial to add up for a candidate to achieve the 270 electoral votes.
The purple states, also called Swing States, are:
Arizona – 11 electoral votes
Georgia- 16 electoral votes
Michigan- 15 electoral votes
Pennsylvania- 19 electoral votes
North Carolina- 16 electoral votes
Nevada – 6 electoral votes
Wisconsin- 10 electoral votes.
However, the Democrats have something called Blue Wall ie Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Democrats candidate is able to maintain the blue wall, it’s automatic that the Democrats will win as was the case of Biden in 2020, but if the Republican candidate is able to breach the blue wall, the Republican candidate wins as was Trump in 2016.
According to Open Secrets, a non profit election transparency organization, so far about $16 billion have been spent on the 2024 election cycle.
Besides the presidential election, all the 435 House seats are for grabs while, the Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats compared to 13 of the Republicans. Unfortunately for the Democrats, some of the senate seats they are defending are in red states such as Montana and Ohio, which means that there’s a high possibility that the Republicans will control the Senate in the next session.
As at 7 am when the polls officially opened today, about 82 million of about 250 million Americans who are eligible to vote have already voted through early in-person voting or by mail. The polls will officially close at 7 pm eastern time, (12 midnight GMT). About one hour after that, the results of some states will trickle in except Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and a few other states of which their constitutions prohibit same day results. Nevertheless, in about three days all should be well.
However, the parties have positioned themselves for drawn out legal battles. The Republicans have raised $90 million for such purpose. While it is not known how much the Democrats have set aside, it is known that they have contracted one of the best election litigation firm in the country. Hence, there’s a possibility that some aspects of the election will end up before the US Supreme Court which is dominated by the Republicans.
Although there’s some fear of a repeat of violence if Trump was to lose, as it happened in 2020, because he has threatened violence if he was to lose, there’s a general sense that because he doesn’t control the security apparatus like 2020, this may come to nothing. However, the real fear is that unlike 2020 when a lot of officials including Republicans ignored his pleas for assistance to continue to stay in power after he lost the election, the Republican Party today and its leadership are at his beck and call, therefore, it will be difficult to find anyone who will oppose him.
Polls upon polls have indicated a very close race, although majority of them give an edge to the De, it is not a forgone conclusion until it is over.
It is hoped however that at the end of the day peace will reign and whoever is elected will be by a popular acclamation.
May God Help the USA!
Source: Fidelis D. Pinaman
